I just fixed a similar problem. My issue also started with what sounded like bearing issues, but turned out to be a simple loose nut, but in an aggravatingly difficult place to reach. The nut holding the rotor that drives the paddle was loose, allowing the paddle to slip. The belts in my machine are fine, in fact so massive I can't imagine them breaking. But access? Yikes.

So, forget the screws on the bottom. They just hold on the feet. Remove all the screws around the top of the baking chamber, the two that hold the control panel on, and the remaining screws under it. There are about 12 screws. Remove the 6 at the bottom of the baking chamber, but not the 2 that hold down the element. Remove the metal sides of the baking chamber (it's one piece). All this is to get access to the screws that really hold the works to the base. They're around the perimeter of the metal chassis on which the motor and element are mounted. Remove them (get help or arrange something to keep the control panel from exerting too much pull on the wires to the element. You could unplug the control unit but I didn't need to.)

Once you lift the motor assembly exposing the belts underneath, you'll see what's loose. Each nut holds down a metal plate beneath the rotor. If it gets loose, the rotor can move more or less freely and won't turn. It looks like they applied an inadequate dab of glue to hold those in place. I should have put in a star washer to keep the nut from loosening again. Next time.

A new baking pan will come with the spindles and bearings but no paddles and the price is $55.00 plus shipping. The hopefully your technical ability to change the pan is adequate. You "may" also need a belt that they don't seem to have available.

http://www.zojirushi.com/user/scripts/user/product.php?product_id=114

http://www.zojirushi.com/user/scripts/user/product_list.php?model_id=24

Pretty tedious work to change out the pan if it is your first time.

Kelly