These events are listed below; together with their approximate probabilities of occurrence during a flight:
Event Probability (A1) Cloud reflection 0.0001 (A2) Precipitation 0.005 (A3) Target evasion 0.002 (A4) Electronic countermeasures 0.04 The probabilities of failure if these events occur are: P(F/A1) = 0.3; P(F/A2) = 0.01; P(F/A3) = 0.005; P(F/A4) = 0.0002. Use Bayes' theorem (Eq. 2.10) to calculate the probability of each of these events being the cause in the event of a missile failing to reach its target.
Toys - Didax - ELEMENTARY PROBABILITY KIT